Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-29 1.682802 2.226039 2.963683 4.065504 5.718257 8.189630e+00 1.233866e+01
2025-01-05 1.147266 1.727357 2.661273 4.368786 7.649522 1.427378e+01 3.065839e+01
2025-01-12 0.768414 1.271861 2.193846 4.178982 8.917423 2.172478e+01 7.070595e+01
2025-01-19 0.525467 0.936063 1.769390 3.828488 9.808666 3.143934e+01 1.698094e+02
2025-01-26 0.400034 0.765274 1.586343 3.929465 12.412191 5.665789e+01 6.934271e+02
2025-02-02 0.328990 0.675933 1.542291 4.432528 17.993069 1.344366e+02 8.747940e+03
2025-02-09 0.280393 0.616809 1.548309 5.203840 28.271729 4.252687e+02 1.631918e+07
2025-02-16 0.231455 0.536836 1.454729 5.581586 39.809874 1.377306e+03 NaN
2025-02-23 0.185735 0.447328 1.281836 5.440229 48.625880 4.111655e+03 NaN
2025-03-02 0.148727 0.368544 1.102545 5.070568 54.948530 1.258284e+04 NaN
2025-03-09 0.128774 0.332002 1.055840 5.464401 80.501489 2.231948e+05 NaN
2025-03-16 0.111953 0.298851 1.003995 5.801778 117.293213 1.995227e+09 NaN
2025-03-23 0.098467 0.273197 0.976756 6.430770 197.715650 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 0.086710 0.249023 0.942451 7.027561 340.946112 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 0.073441 0.214987 0.840129 6.735502 439.584261 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 0.061747 0.183001 0.730236 6.143811 495.827677 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 0.054671 0.165805 0.688228 6.355731 804.407279 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 0.050386 0.157696 0.691440 7.304004 1990.469977 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 0.047228 0.152904 0.712045 8.780903 7462.049323 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 0.043085 0.142694 0.692387 9.533734 23872.565507 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 0.038307 0.128344 0.636082 9.284341 47718.558577 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 0.033779 0.113861 0.570617 8.591897 68826.583820 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 0.031315 0.107672 0.559891 9.367031 562005.410742 NaN NaN